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Warsaw / Polish market
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Residential development pricing set analytically — a price that maximises revenue without killing the pace
An investment price list isn't a table set by gut feel and then patched with discounts when sales stall. I calculate it with quantitative models and run it as a discipline: setting the entry price and the path of changes so the absorption pace holds without bleeding margin through ad-hoc cuts.
Book an initial callWhy a price list set by gut feel costs the most
Most price lists are built from a glance at the neighbour, intuition and board pressure for a fast start. Then, when the pace stalls, they're rescued with discounts — and it's those, not the entry price itself, that usually eat the margin. I work the other way round: before we set the price list, I break the question into factors that can actually be calculated — how much the market will absorb at a given pace, what each apartment attribute is worth, and where the threshold lies beyond which pushing price higher kills sales faster than it adds to revenue.
The models I actually use
The method isn't a promise of an outcome — it's a discipline that replaces intuition with quantified risk. Each of these models answers a different pricing question, and together they form one decision rather than four separate spreadsheets.
- Monte Carlo simulations of sales pace — a distribution of probable absorption paths instead of one optimistic forecast
- Bayesian price-volume models — how a price change translates into pace, with uncertainty made explicit and updated as data comes in
- Hedonic regression of attribute premiums — what aspect, floor, corner position, view or plot layout really add, measured rather than guessed
- Dynamic price paths with pace triggers — thresholds set in advance at which the price rises or eases, instead of last-minute end-of-quarter discounts
Pricing as part of one system, not a separate spreadsheet
A price list doesn't live in a vacuum. A calculated model is worth nothing if the positioning promises one thing, the website shows another, and the sales office hands out discounts with no logic. That's why I run pricing as one layer of the same mechanism in which I set the offer, communication, website, campaigns and CRM. One person ties the whole thing together, so the pricing decision never drifts from what the market sees and hears across the table.
Frequently asked questions
How do I set the price list for a new residential development?+
Not from a glance at the neighbour, and not by gut feel. I start by calculating how much the market will absorb at a given pace (Monte Carlo simulations), how price affects volume (a price-volume model) and what each apartment attribute is worth (hedonic regression). On that basis I set the entry price and a path of changes with pace thresholds, instead of patching the price list with discounts once sales stall.
Do you promise the highest possible price per square metre?+
No. The highest price that halts sales is worse than a slightly lower price that holds the pace and needs no discounts. The aim is to maximise revenue across the whole investment over time, not to set a record on the first unit. The method reduces the risk of a pricing error — it doesn't guarantee a specific number, because no honest model does.
Do you only handle the price list, or the whole investment's sales?+
Pricing is one layer of a broader system. I can calculate and run the price list alone, but it delivers most when it's tied to positioning, the offer, the website, campaigns and the sales office's work — which I run comprehensively as one whole, not as separate services.
Have an investment that needs a better result?
Let's talk about the project's situation — no obligation. First I assess whether I see real room for improvement, and I tell you plainly what first move makes sense.