Zbigniew DukaczewskiStrategic Advisor for Residential Developers

Insight · NBP Q4 2025 data

PREMIUM ON NEW — GONE.

Not gradually. Gone.

February 15, 20263 min readZbigniew Dukaczewski

I pulled the NBP transaction data for Q4 2025.

Warsaw: secondary market PLN 16,750/m². Primary PLN 16,583/m².
Kraków: same pattern.

NBP transaction prices for residential units, Q4 2025: secondary vs. primary marketBar chart for Warsaw and Kraków showing that the transaction price on the secondary market exceeds the primary market. In Warsaw: secondary PLN 16,750/m² vs. primary PLN 16,583/m².PLN 14,500/m²PLN 15,500/m²PLN 16,500/m²PLN 17,500/m²PLN 16,750/m²SECONDARYPLN 16,583/m²PRIMARYWarsawsame patternSECONDARYsame patternPRIMARYKrakówNBP · TRANSACTION PRICES · Q4 2025
NBP · transaction prices · Q4 2025. For Kraków marked as “same pattern” — full values in the NBP report.

Nobody is saying this out loud, because it breaks a comfortable narrative.

The secondary market — in the prices actually paid, not listed — is more expensive than the primary market. For the first time.

What this means

The premium on “new” has vanished. Not gradually — it's gone. A developer no longer wins on novelty alone. You win on a specific location, a specific product, and a specific value proposition — or you lose on price to the secondary market, which has a better spot and move-in-ready condition.

What this means for your positioning

If your positioning today reads “new, modern, energy-efficient” with no answer to the question “why here, and why at this price” — the secondary market is already beating you.

Not on price. On perceived value.