Insight · Speed-to-lead

HARVARD, 2011.

Polish developers still haven't acted on it.

April 29, 20267 min readZbigniew Dukaczewski

In March 2011, Harvard Business Review published a short, uncomfortable study. James Oldroyd, Kristina McElheran and David Elkington analyzed 2,241 U.S. companies and 1.25 million inbound leads. The results have been publicly available for fifteen years. Most Polish residential developers still haven't implemented them.

What Harvard found

Four numbers that haven't changed since 2011:

  • 23% of companies never replied to a lead.
  • Average response time among those that did: 42 hours.
  • Companies contacting prospects within the first hour: 7× more likely to qualify the lead than those calling after 2 hours.
  • The same companies: 60× more likely than competitors who waited 24 hours.

Not the campaign. Not the creative. Not the media plan. Response time.

Four indicators from the Harvard Business Review 2011 study covering 2,241 companies and 1.25 million leadsChart: four indicators from the Harvard Business Review 2011 study — 23% of companies never reply to leads, average response time is 42 hours, first-hour contact increases qualification odds 7× vs. the second hour and 60× vs. 24 hours.HBR · 2011 · 2 241 FIRM · 1,25 MLN LEADÓWCompanies that never replied to a lead23%Average response time among those that did reply42 hLead qualification: 1st-hour contact vs. after 2 hoursLead qualification: 1st-hour contact vs. after 24 hours60×Oldroyd, McElheran, Elkington — Harvard Business Review, March 2011
Oldroyd, McElheran, Elkington — Harvard Business Review, March 2011. Sample: 2,241 companies, 1.25 million inbound web leads.

The Polish market in 2026

Fifteen years pass. In Q1 2026, Polish developers sold 12,900 apartments across the seven largest urban markets — 11% more quarter-over-quarter and 35% year-over-year (JLL). The headline reads like a boom. The growth, however, is uneven: some are hitting plan, others are sitting on inventory, throwing budget at campaigns, cutting prices and blaming the market.

The customer is changing too. From the Nieruchomosci-online.pl + Institute for Urban and Regional Development study: only 8% of Poles — even with unlimited budget — would choose to live in the center of a metropolis. One in five wants a quiet district of a large city. One in ten — the Polish coast.

For foreign capital reading this: the structural growth in Polish residential is real, but the operating discipline of local players varies wildly. The competitor next door to your project may not know — fifteen years after Harvard published it — that response time is the single largest controllable variable in conversion. That's a risk on their side. It's leverage on yours, if you build the system they didn't.

Three classic, wrong reactions when sales slow down

I've seen this pattern across dozens of projects. When sales slow, leadership does one of three things:

  • Adds budget to campaigns. More traffic. More leads pumped into the same broken process.
  • Hires another person. A junior on social, a “creative” manager, an external agency. Higher OPEX, same outcome.
  • Discounts. The fastest pseudo-relief. The most permanent margin damage. The clearest signal that next week will be cheaper.

Each treats the symptom. The cause has been documented since 2011.

Where the revenue actually leaks

A prospect leaves contact at 21:14 on Tuesday. Lead arrives in the sales office inbox. Office opens email at 9:30 Wednesday. Rep gets the handoff after morning standup, around 11:00. By the time he calls back — 12:40. Fourteen hours after the first click.

In that same window, the prospect left contact with two other developers. One called back at 21:31. The rest of that sale was a formality.

This is not hypothetical. It's the kind of case I see in Polish developers' CRMs every month. The full list of where revenue actually escapes:

  • Speed-to-lead — time from contact submission to the first meaningful touch.
  • Show rate — how many booked meetings actually happen.
  • Follow-up discipline — number of attempts before the rep gives up. Most quit after one. Research has been clear for years: 80% of customers say no four times before saying yes.
  • Source quality — which channels deliver sold apartments vs. which only inflate form-submission counts.
  • Discount policy — discretionary or systematic. If discretionary, margin always leaks where reps look for the easy close.
  • CRM as a decision system — does leadership see the conversion cycle in it, or is it just a contact archive?

Each costs money. Together, they cost dozens of unsold apartments per year.

More headcount ≠ better outcome

For 1–3 active developments, a full in-house senior team (strategist + analyst + performance + CRM + automation + copy + PM) is a fixed cost against a problem that occurs in pulses. It works while the company has a steady project pipeline. It stops working when there are quiet quarters between sales launches and previous-phase inventory is still on the balance sheet.

The alternative isn't firing people. It's changing the model: system instead of structure. A working CRM. Two disciplined sales reps with a clear response SLA. A discount policy written down, not negotiated by email. Two or three lead channels properly attributed in analytics. One revenue operator who connects strategy, pricing, funnel and the board report into a single weekly decision rhythm.

Not an agency. Not a full-time hire. Revenue architecture matched to the actual scale of the business.

Who this isn't for

Not for developers looking for another performance campaign or a creative agency. Not for boards convinced a bigger budget will solve a conversion problem. It's for those who suspect the issue isn't traffic — it's the loss of revenue between first contact and signed contract.

If you have a project — in Poland or considering Poland — where something isn't closing the way it should, send a message. No sales pitch. No quote in the first conversation. Facts from your data first. Whether it's worth talking further is your decision.